Week 16 NFL Picks

 

Oakland Raider (7-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)

Inside the numbers:

Oakland is 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games.

Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

For starters, the Chief’s defense is quietly flying under the radar as they continue to play at a high level. With the Brandons at cornerback, Carr and Flowers, in addition to the pass-rushing abilities of rookie Justin Houston, Kansas City was able to shut down Jordy Nelson and the rest of the Packer’s receiver crew last week. After an outing like that, I don’t see how Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore could present much of an issue. As far as the ground game is concerned, Michael Bush hasn’t had much success after the Raider’s Thursday night victory over San Diego.

The Raider’s woes continue on the defensive side as they have allowed a dismal 7.6 YPA over the past four weeks. Look for a consistent Kyle Orton to move the ball with relative ease and put up points. I like the Chiefs here more than any of the other games, and they have covered 3 of their last 4. To add to that, teams that have knocked off undefeated teams (7-0 or better) are an amazing 16-4 ATS as favorites the following week since 1989.

The Vegas edge: None (51% of the money on KC, 49% on OAK)

PICK: KC -2.5

Denver Broncos (8-6) @ Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Inside the numbers:

Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 away games.

Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.

As much I hate Tebow, his performance against the Patriots last week was better than people give him credit for. While his fumble clearly hurt his chances of winning, overall he was decently solid while receiving no help from his offensive line. Lucky for both Tebow and his O-line, Buffalo ranks dead last with a mere 21 total sacks on the year. Tebow has proven his ability to pass well when given time, and this looks to remain the same as the Bills currently give up 7.6 YPA in the air. Buffalo’s ground defense may be even worse as they gave up over 200 yards to Reggie Bush last week. Yes, I just said OVER 200 YARDS TO REGGIE BUSH!?! In fact, the last time the Bills held a team to under 90 rushing yards was all the way back in Week 8.

Amid all the things going against the Bills, there are also a few things working in favor of the Broncos this week. Aside from last week’s game, the Broncos have consistently beaten their opponents in the turnover battle, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will likely help them continue this trend. In the past 9 weeks Fitzpatrick has turned the ball over 15 times, compared with his 10 touchdowns.

The Vegas edge: Buffalo (75% of the money on Denver)

PICK: DEN -3

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) @ Tennessee Titans (7-7)

Inside the numbers:

Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as road underdogs.

Tennessee is 7-2 ATS coming off a loss in their last 9.

I don’t even have words to describe the way Blaine Gabbert plays football. All I can say is that I feel bad for the entire city of Jacksonville, and even for MJD who was hoping to get a little offensive help in last year’s draft. Jones-Drew is set to have another huge performance as the Titans don’t present much of a pass-rush and gave up over 200 rushing yards to the Colts last week. Luckily for Jacksonville, MJD’s remarkable drive and persistence every week gives the team a chance at pulling off an upset every time they take the field.

Now this game is hard to pick primarily because we don’t know who will be starting under center for the Titans. Anyone with a brain would suggest that Jake Locker is a far better option than an injured Matt Hasselbeck, but Mike Munchak clearly feels otherwise. And CJ2K doesn’t seem to be of much help as he continues to be content with showing a lack of effort following his new contract. As much as I am honestly scared about putting my money behind Gabbert, road underdogs seem to fare well after an away loss, and I don’t think the Titans are good enough to be a touchdown favorite over any NFL team.

The Vegas edge: Jacksonville (69% of the money on Tennessee)

PICK: JAX +7.5

 

Arizona Cardinals (7-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

Inside the numbers:

Arizona is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC opponents.

Arizona is 4-7 in their last 11 as an underdog coming off a win.

Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games.

It doesn’t seem like Kevin Kolb will be ready to go this week as he continues to be bothered with concussion issues. That may not be a bad thing for Arizona as they are 5-1 this season in games in which Skelton has taken a majority of the snaps. Like Tebow, Skelton is raw and inaccurate most of the time, yet he somehow seems to step up when it matters most. And ever since Leon Hall got injured, the Bengals have been unable to do much against the pass. Let’s see if Skelton can play well enough to exploit this.

The Bengals have a weapon of their own in Andy Dalton who plays especially well in the 4th quarter, leading his team to a remarkable chance at a playoff birth. Plus, star receiver A.J. Green will be playing despite injury. Still, Arizona is traveling cross-country to play an early game, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue as they are 3-0 this season in such instances. With the Bengal’s difficulty covering the spread when favored, and Arizona covering 6 of the last 8, I’m taking the points here.

The Vegas edge: Arizona (77% of the money on Cincinnati)

PICK: ARI +4

 

Miami Dolphins (5-9) @ New England Patriots (11-3)

Inside the numbers:

Miami is 7-1 ATS in their last 8.

Miami is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 divisional games.

NE is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games favored by 9 or more.

While most sports analysts consider the Patriots a great team (and I agree), what we should be saying is that the Patriot’s OFFENSE is great; their defense is abysmal. With Reggie Bush coming off a stellar performance, I look for him to continue this against the Pats, which should leave a solid Matt Moore with short-yardage situations that he can handle. Plus, with New England’s best pass-rusher in Andre Carter out for the season, things seem to be looking up for a hot Matt Moore.

Speaking of hot, no one seems to be able to stop Tom Brady. The Patriots will be putting up points, it’s a matter of being able to limit those points or simply match their total. I don’t expect the Dolphins to outscore them, but they should be able to keep the Patriots one-dimensional, as the Dolphins rank 3rd in rush-defense. Miami has covered 7 of its last 8, and the spread seems to be slightly inflated this week.

The Vegas edge: Miami (68% of the money favors New England)

PICK: MIA +10

 

Cleveland Browns (4-10) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-4)

Inside the numbers:

Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5.

Baltimore is 2-5-1 ATS is their last 8 games when favored.

In Cleveland on Week 13, Joe Flacco was a disappointing 10-23 for 158 yards, and with Pro-Bowl cornerback Joe Haden playing at such a high level, the Browns seem ready to contain the pass-attack of the Ravens. Assuming that Cam Cameron remembers to call plays for Ray Rice, I expect him to have another huge game, as the Rice-Williams combo nearly reached 300 yards in the last matchup between these two teams.

Colt McCoy will be benched this week from the concussion he suffered at the hands of James Harrison, but I like Seneca Wallace’s chances better than McCoy’s. If Wallace can get the slightest bit of help from an inconsistent rookie in Greg Little, and a disappointing Peyton Hillis, then I expect the Browns to keep it close, even if they end up with a loss. The Ravens are clearly a better team than the Browns, but teams favored by 12.5 or more coming off a loss as a road favorite are just 8-28 ATS since 1989.

The Vegas edge: Cleveland (69% of the money is on Baltimore)

PICK: CLE +12.5

 

New York Giants (7-7) @ New York Jets (8-6)

Inside the numbers:

NYG are 2-6-1 in their last 9 vs. AFC opponents.

NYJ are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents.

After great outings against the Packers and Cowboys, Eli Manning looked god-awful against the ‘Skins last week. You have to think the Giants will come to play against their in-state rival Jets, and even if Hakeem Nicks gets stuck on Revis Island, Manning is well-practiced at spreading the ball out and exploiting the smallest holes in a defensive secondary.

Shonn Green is going to be the X-factor in this game. With the Giants not living up to their hype as run-stoppers, Shonn Green should b able to establish the running game early and often. This will leave the Sanchize with play-action and short-yardage opportunities to exploit a secondary that blows huge coverages every week. The spread confuses me though. For those who don’t know, home teams typically get 3 points. Why are the Jets getting the usual home-field points, even though both teams play in the same stadium?

As enticing as the Giants look getting points “at home” against an overrated Jet’s squad, I feel like the handicappers know something here that the rest of us don’t. When in doubt, bet against the bettors. After all, there is a reason that Vegas still exists.

The Vegas edge: Jets (68% of the money is one the Giants)

PICK: Jets

 

Minnesota Vikings (2-12) @ Washington Redskins (5-9)

Inside the numbers:

Minnesota is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 non-divisional games.

Washington is 2-8-1 in their last 11 as favorites.

Washington is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 vs. non-divisional opponents.

Is it just me or is Christian Ponder getting worse? After his debut it looked like the kid might turn out to be a stud, but I don’t think too many of us think that anymore. Peterson is also another week healthier which should help the Vikings offense, not to mention being healthy can’t be said for Washington’s RB Roy Helu. Helu will play this week although he was contained last week due to leg injuries from his toes up past his knees and is listed as questionable. If Helu can’t get the ground game going that will leave Rex Grossman with more pressure than he needs or can handle. Luckily for him, the Viking’s secondary is also facing the injury bug. The Redskins may be playing well right now, but 6.5 points seems a little much.

I like Minnesota here because of the 6-and-6 rule: Teams that finish the year 6-10 rarely cover spreads as favorites of 6 or more.

The Vegas edge: Minnesota (74% of the money is on Washington)

PICK; MIN +6.5

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) @ Carolina Panthers (5-9)

Inside the numbers:

Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8.

Tampa Bay is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as road underdogs.

Carolina is 5-3 ATS in their last 8.

Carolina is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 divisional games.

Don’t let Carolina’s poor divisional numbers confuse you as they have to play the Saints and Falcons each twice a year. Still, like Christian Ponder, Can Newton has significantly slowed down since his start to the season. Still, Newton should have no problem torching a Tampa Bay secondary that ranks 30th in the league allowing 8.1 YPA and seems to have given up on the season. If Newton helps the Panthers get on top early, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart should be able to chew up clock against a defense that’s rather inept at stopping the run.

As far as Tampa’s offense is concerned, I can’t think of a single playmaker. While LeGarrette Blount is a solid bruising back, if Tampa falls behind early they will likely attempt to recover through the air, and Josh Freeman turns the ball over as if he enjoys it. The aforementioned 6-and-6 rule applies here as well, but I’m having a hard time betting the Bucs.

The Vegas edge: Tampa Bay (96% of the money is on Carolina)

PICK: TAM +7.5

 

St. Louis Rams (2-12) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)

Inside the numbers:

St. Louis is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14.

St. Louis is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 away games.

Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite.

Pittsburgh is 5-3 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents.

I said this before last week’s game, but Big Ben’s injury normally sidelines a player for 3-4 weeks. I know he’s tough and all, but why is Roethlisberger trying to play through this? They already have a playoff spot wrapped up and the Steelers are going to want him healthy for the postseason. Luckily for Big Ben, if he plays, which he likely will, he has the benefit of going up against a crappy St. Louis defense that is lacking in all aspects. Little known fact: St. Louis has 10 members of their secondary on injured reserve. I bet Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are licking their chops.

On the other side of the ball, Sam Bradford is out for the season, a move that should have been made long ago. That leaves the Rams with Kellen Clemens under center. Assuming the Steelers shut down the run early, Clemens should be pressured into throwing a couple of INTs, leaving the Steelers with a relatively easy win. But will they win by 18? The line has been taken off the board due to Roethlisberger’s status, but stay tuned. Once the line comes out, I’d take the Steelers for anything 17 or less.

 

San Diego Chargers (7-7) @ Detroit Lions (9-5)

Inside the numbers:

San Diego is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC opponents.

Detroit is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 home games.

It must be tradition – every year since I can remember the Chargers are hyped up prior to the season, then seem to shoot themselves in the foot as soon as the season starts. Then, catching everyone by surprise, December rolls around and the Chargers are suddenly on fire again. To say that Philip Rivers is on fire is actually an understatement. In the past 3 weeks Rivers has had a 75% completion rate with an average of 9.6 YPA. With tons of injuries in the Lion’s secondary, I don’t see him slowing down this week.

If I ever bet on over/unders (and I occasionally do), this would be the week to bet the over, as I expect an offensive field-day at Ford Field this weekend. The Stafford/Johnson duo is thrilling to watch, and may be harder to stop than the recent surge of Rivers. Yet what hurts the Lions the most is the dumb penalties that they are called for each week, leaving them just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. While they have been able to get away with the penalties at times, don’t expect that to be the case against such a hot Charger’s team.

The Vegas edge: Detroit (82% of the money is on San Diego)

PICK: SDG +3, over 50.5

 

San Francisco 49ers (11-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-7)

Inside the numbers:

San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 divisional games.

Seattle is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Seattle is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 divisional games.

Although the Seahawks young secondary is keen for giving up the big play, that’s not the way Alex Smith plays as he looks to get the ball out quickly for the short gain. If Gore runs well, San Francisco can stick to its usual game plan, and will score enough to win the game. Yet, Seattle has a top 5 rush-defense and San Francisco is inept at scoring once they reach the red zone, so I look for this one to come down to the final minutes of the game to be decided.

While Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch is shifting to high gear with hopes of a big contract at the end of the year, last week against the Bears served as a perfect example of how he hasn’t been able to do too much against a solid front seven. Although Tavaris Jackson has done rather well converting on third-down this season, San Fran’s defense is one of the best, which makes doing each of the little things it takes to win a game a little harder.

While everything seems to be leaning the 49ers way, look at these: teams that win in blowouts on Monday night are 44-23 ATS the following week since 1999. Also, teams with 11 or more victories are 27-56 ATS in the remaining weeks of the regular season.

The Vegas edge: Seattle (92% of the money is on San Francisco)

PICK: SEA +2.5

 

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

Inside the numbers:

Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road underdog.

Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 divisional games.

Dallas is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.

Dallas is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 divisional games.

Romo had one of his worst outings ever back in Week 8 when these two teams matched up for the first of two meetings this season. Romo was also sacked 4 times. I wouldn’t expect that to happen this weekend, as Felix Jones should be ready to run all over the Eagle’s defense that has been unable to stop the run all season, and I see no reason why that should suddenly change.

I’m not sure what’s worse, the Eagles versus the run or the Cowboys versus the pass. Back in Week 8, QB Dog Killa went 21-28 for 279 with two TDs and had 54 rushing yards on seven attempts. Now that Vick and all of his receivers are healthy, the Eagle’s offense should be “scary,” as Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones puts it. And I haven’t even mentioned LeSean McCoy yet. If Andy Reid remembers to get him the ball, Shady should wreak havoc like he did back in Week 8.

The Vegas edge: Dallas (83% of the money is on Philadelphia)

PICK: DAL -1.5

 

Chicago Bears (7-7) @ Green Bay Packers (13-1)

Inside the numbers:

Chicago is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.

Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.

Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 at home.

Reports that Josh McCown will be the starter come with mixed emotions amongst Bear fans who seem to prefer anything over the atrocious Caleb Hanie. As long as McCown doesn’t turn the ball over, he shouldn’t have much trouble moving the chains against the Packer defense that has been overshadowed all season by the successes of the Packer offense. Both the pass-rush and the ground defense of the Packers seems to be porous and capable of being exploited by even a mediocre offense.

While Aaron Rodgers seemed to be a unanimous MVP pick a few weeks ago, injuries to the offensive line and weapons such as Greg Jennings have been crimping his style. Jordy Nelson is not good enough to be a #1 receiver, Donald Driver is old, and Randall Cobb is too young. It looks like Aaron Rdogers will have to get it done on his own as Chicago’s run defense has surrendered a mere 2.8 YPC since Week 11. I expect the Cheese-Heads to pull this one out, but in a close game.

The Vegas edge: NONE (51% on Green Bay, 49% on Chicago)

PICK: CHI +13

 

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) @ New Orleans Saints (11-3)

Inside the numbers:

Atlanta is 7-4 ATS in their past 11 road games.

Atlanta is 5-3 ATS in their last 8 divisional games.

New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.

New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 coming off a road win.

Atlanta has issues with its secondary, just these issues have gone unnoticed as 4 of the last 5 quarterbacks they have faced are rookies. Surprise! Drew Brees is far from being a rookie, and only needs 306 more passing yards to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. If the Falcons want to win they’ll have to find some way of pressuring Brees…without blitzing. The Saints have too many weapons, and Brees is too mobile that by sending a blitz, the Falcons are forced to leave open at least one top receiver.

The Falcons are one of my favorite plays of the week as the Saints have a hard time stopping the pass, and both Roddy White and Julio Jones are coming into this game on fire. These Atlanta-New Orleans games are always close, and 5 of the last 6 outings have been decided by 4 points or less.

The Vegas edge: Atlanta (77% of the money on the Saints)

PICK: ATL  +7

-Kaye